Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

This research studies the effect of climate change on hydrological behavior two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with simulation future scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) other extreme 8.5). Three periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections EURO-CORDEX selected, to which different bias correction methods applied before incorporation into SWAT model. The statistical indices for monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in calibration validation phases Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS ?4.00–0.70%; RSR 0.44–0.46) ephemeral Algeciras 0.78–0.82; ?8.10–?8.20%; 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, impact both basins evaluated by comparing flows those historical period. RCP 4.5 8.5 end 2071–2100 period, will have decreased between 46.3% 52.4% 46.6% 55.8%, respectively.